Assorted Links: September 13, 2005

O.K., Blame the Social Conservatives

Polyscopique takes a look at the impact of the CPC's social conservatism on its electoral fortunes.  The most fascinating part of this post is not Polyscopiques usual statistical number crunching, informative though it is, but a simple fact; the difference in the number of votes cast for the Conservatives vs. the Liberals in English speaking Canada was almost exactly 100,000.  So all that media hype about Stephen Harper's "hard right-wing" image being unmarketable to most Canadians is nonsense.  Outside of Quebec his views are about as popular as those of Paul Martin.  The difference between government and opposition now, as it has almost always been, is Quebec.  Who will Quebec vote for?  Whoever and whatever serves the interests of Quebec.  On one point I happen to agree with Jean Chretien, the ward heeler who played Prime Minister for much of the last decade.  A vote for the Bloc is not a vote for independence, it's often closer to being a strike vote in a union.  It strengthens the bargaining power of the Quebecois at the national pork barrel / rights table.  Though I hate to say it, if we want the CPC in power again we need someone from Quebec who won't piss off the West.  If you can square that circle, buddy, you're a whole heck smarter than old Publius.

To better understand what these numbers mean, let's look at the official results of the 2004 elections. Out of 10,126,447 votes cast outside Québec, 3,717,959 were cast for the Conservative Party and 3,816,575 were cast for the Liberal Party. In other words, the Conservatives won 36.7 percent of the vote outside Québec whereas the Liberals won 37.7 percent. In the absence of the social conservatism factor, the Conservatives would have won over 40 percent of the vote outside Québec, more than the Liberals.

It could be said that the Conservatives have missed a golden opportunity during the 2004 leadership race, when the image of the re-founded party was still in flux. The Conservative Party could have chosen Belinda Stronach, a socially liberal woman, as its leader. This probably would have given the Conservative Party a quite different image and would have erased much of the four-points social conservatism penalty.

With all due respect, the words golden opportunity and Belinda Stronach should not be uttered in the same paragraph, except with a very strong ironic undertone.  That girl's bad news for everyone she comes in touch with.

The Life of Brian

Oh, to be Brian Mulroney.  One of the shrewdest minds in Canadian political history.  A gambler and visionary the likes of which this nation has rarely seen.  Yet, yet, and yet again, poor Brian seems to walk right into it with gusto.  The thing about the Brian I think we should all keep in mind is that he was no more or less of a bastard than Pierre Le Grande.  Mulroney, however, was, and is, completely oblivious to the fact that he is a bastard.  He still thinks he's a nice guy from Baie-Comeau, who used to sing Irish Eyes Are Smiling for old Col. McCormick.  Trudeau, on the other hand, positively gloried in the fact that he was a bastard.  It was a point of pride for the aristocratic and autocratic Trudeau that he was number one, and everyone else was simply a lesser being, living underneath his shadow.  As a result Pierre seemed far more real to people than Brian, who was, frankly, putting on an act.  David Peterson, not a man that I am particularly fond of, for many reasons, best captured Mulroney when he described him as a "pathological liar."  He doesn't know when he's lying, just like he doesn't know that he's a bastard.  The reason for this, I suspect, is that Brian Mulroney, outside of politics, is probably a fairly decent and charming man who treats his family with great care and sympathy.  In other words, he's a bastard to only the people who, in the end, don't really count all that much in life.

The Life of Kim

When it was revealed yesterday that the Brian had taken a few well aimed swipes at Kim Campbell, all of which were dead on frankly, it was inevitable that the old blonde dud would respond.  Kim of the Ninety-Odd days, in her counter-attack on the Brian, fails to mention the fact that the Tories were ahead in the polls coming out of the party convention.  The Tory-damrung that ensued was not a foregone conclusion, as it seems twelve years later.  To this day Allan Greg, the polling wizard who had helped the Brian to two back to back election victories, as well as the Clark miracle of 1979, believes that the 1993 campaign was salvageable from the Mulroney wreck.  Kim does however make a few good points:

"He waited until the last minute - using the resources of the prime ministership to travel the world in a 'farewell' tour of events that often seemed designed to help his post-political career - and then worked to ensure that the campaign would not criticize his record.

"His use of vulgar language and willingness to credit baseless gossip are an unwelcome reminder of those times when he made cabinet colleagues like myself uncomfortable.

"The effect of hearing Brian Mulroney in his own voice is, sadly, to remind Canadians of why they didn't like him and delay what he so clearly craves and feels he deserves - respect for the achievements of his government.

"What Brian Mulroney wanted in 1993 was not a successor who could actually have a chance to govern, but a scapegoat who would bear the electoral burden of his unpopularity, and allow him to retire 'undefeated' into the historical pantheon of which he is convinced he is a member."

WFB on Dubya Being A Racist

The founder of NR says no.  Well, no is such an inadequate word to describe an WFB column.  So many big words and stuff being used.

If the sequence were parsed in a particular way, such a conclusion would be encouraged, but not warranted. A. The poorer sections of town were the least accessible. B. The poorer sections of town were the most densely inhabited by blacks. C. Therefore, blacks received the least aid. — That sequence, posing as a syllogism, is fraudulent if made to add up to racial prejudice.

But what isn’t denied is the existence of racist perceptions, as shown in the Washington Post poll.

The most direct transcription of such prejudice came with the O. J. Simpson trial. When 75 percent of black Americans believe that the answer is A, not B, and 75 percent of white Americans believe that the answer is B, not A, then what we have is a breakdown in communication between two cultures.

Not Going Down With His Ship

Perhaps Mayor Nagin is merely insuring the safety of his family, while attempting to rebuild the shattered city of New Orleans.  However, isn't buying a house in Dallas, in the middle of a crisis of this scale, not showing something of a lack of faith in the future of his city?  I know many of his citizens have scattered to the four winds, but shouldn't the Mayor have tried to tough things out?  If he thought N.O. would be back on its feet within a few months would he have bought a house in another city, several hundred miles away?

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin (search) greeted President Bush when he arrived in Louisiana last night, and was at his side as he fielded questions on the Katrina relief efforts this morning. That quality time with the president, however, marks the mayor's first visit to the disaster area since Wednesday when Nagin pulled up stakes and moved his family to Dallas. The Dallas Morning News reports that Nagin has already bought a house in the city, and enrolled his daughter in school.

When the Mayor appeared on "Meet the Press" on Sunday from Dallas, he was never asked about his presence there, or his decision to move his family.