The Grand Coalition

The killer instinct.  Knowing when you're opponent is vulnerable and unable to respond effectively.  It's essential in high politics and Prime Minister Harper demonstrated he has it in spades this week.  The years of careful maneuvering, the vast and well oiled fund-raising apparatus and the long tedious hours wooing Quebecois and ethnic voters, all this has made him Prime Minister of Canada, albeit with a fairly strong minority government.  The Liberals, the natural governing party, have been near death before, in 1958 and 1984.  Each time, somehow, the corpse came back to life and nearly destroyed the Conservative Party.  Not this time.  This time the knife goes in and stays in.  Ten to twenty years of Conservative hegemony, enough time for Canadians to grow used to the word and sense of being conservative, perhaps time to reverse the damage done by the Pearson-Trudeau welfare state.  Here's hoping. 

No time like the present. It seems to have been a spontaneous act, something Harper thought up on the way to work, or perhaps dropping the kids off at school.  A divided and bickering opposition, a prostrate Liberal Party, an election in Quebec (that everyone has forgotten about) and the perfect moment to bankrupt his opponents.  Too tempting not to try, whatever the risks.  The punditry is in universal agreement, that the oh so clever Stephen Harper has finally botched it, grossly miscalculating the resolve of the opposition.  If, this is still a bigger if than most people are assuming this weekend, a Grand Coalition of Left and Lefter (Kate McMillan is running a naming contest) can be formed, it can't last.  The sole, and very slender, pretext the opposition has for removing the government is an argued to be weak stimulus package.  Alright, Harper and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty throw another few billion into infrastructure spending and a cut in the capital gains tax.  Voila!  Or perhaps the Minister of Finance points out that the Americans too are planning a stimulus package, one to be unveiled in full once the Messiah of Oak Park is sworn in to save the Republic, and that prudence would suggest we wait for the elephant to jump first; lest we be crushed.  Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be defeated for light and transient causes.  Complaining that your being semi-kicked off the dole by the government of the day is scarcely a battle cry.  I'm entitled to my entitlements.  Everything wrong with Canada in one sentence.  This is an issue close to the hearts of our elected masters that has not one point of resonance across the country. 

The downfall of the government would look bad on everyone;  on Harper for having misjudged, on the Liberals and NDP for committing the dumbest act in Canadian political history.  It would go a very, very long way to remove whatever remains of Canadians respect for the political class.  At a time of national crisis the federal parliament is engrossed in a gigantic act of navel gazing.  All this over $30 million dollars in public funding.  The fault, however, lies with Jean Chretien, ward heeler cum former Prime Minister of Canada.  It was his decision - which many assumed was motivated by spite against his successor - to ban corporate and union donations which has lead us to this very odd weekend in our national history.  Being a statist at heart, Papa Jean couldn't simply have banned those lovely briefcases full of money from the union halls and Bay Street, no he had to put the political parties on welfare.  The problem with welfare, as any true blooded conservative will tell you, is that it breeds dependency.  Wisely, the Harper Tories kept and expanded the strong fund-raising system established by the Reform Party.  The panic now gripping the Hill, the called for a shotgun marriage between the Grits and the Dippers, is a result of two long established political parties being on the dole for way too long.  In effect, they've been hoisted by their own petard.  Statism is killing the statists.

More likely than not it's a grand bluff.  As Peter McKay said yesterday, when the opposition plays chicken they wind up being chicken.  All the icewater is on the government side of the House right now.  Prime Minister Dion?  Minister of Finance Jack Layton?  What will Bay Street think?  What will the Blue Liberals think?  What will the Greenistas think?  This is an unHoly Alliance and its high priests are likely to get defrocked if it becomes a reality.  In the worst case scenario the Harper Tories, especially Harper, suffer a severe but temporary humiliation.  The Genius gets knocked down a few points.  Perhaps he finds humility, though this is unlikely.  He will, however, find long-term victory.  The theme song for next week in Canadian politics is an old favourite of mine, Send in the Clowns.