Begin The Beguine

Dennis Pilon is "deeply worried."  About what?  About the Governor General granting the Prime Minister's request to prorogue Parliament.  "I do not mean to be alarmist in suggesting we may be heading for violence. But the actions of this prime minister are coming dangerously close to inciting mob rule."  OK.  I'm just trying to imagine Stephen Harper at the head of an angry mob, or perhaps calling out whatever bits of our army aren't tied town in southern Afghanistan, doing the jobs the French and Germans are too gutless to do.  El Presidente Harper?  The Pinochet of Leaside?  The Caudillo of Calgary?  Dennis isn't the only one worried. 

"This is a major constitutional precedent and that worries me more than anything else," said Errol Mendes, a professor of constitutional law at the University of Ottawa and editor in chief of the National Journal of Constitutional Law.

"Any time that the prime minister wants to evade the confidence of the House now he can use this precedent to do so," said Mendes, who was appointed to the Privy Council Office by former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin in 2005.

Mr Mendes concern is that the GG did what every GG in the history of Canada has done before, prorogued parliament at the request of the Prime Minister of the day.  It is not, by custom, a prerogative of the Crown to refuse a suspension of a sitting of the House.  There is no precedent set because there is no precedent to set.  The radical departure, here, would be in handing power over to a political leader, Stephane Dion, who had been thoroughly repudiated by the electorate less than two months before.  Power has changed before in Canadian history, without the benefit of an election.  In 1985 in Ontario Frank Miller's Progressive Conservatives eked out a minority government, which was soon removed from office by an alliance between the Liberals and the NDP, the latter headed by the bad penny of Canadian politics, Bob Rae.  The difference then was that the Liberals under David Peterson had dramatically strengthened their position in the previous election.  Leaving aside the constitutional correctness of Peterson's overthrowing of the Miller government, there was also a plausible democratic case to be made.  Certainly no would have confused Peterson for the doorman at the Royal York, something which has probably happened to Dion once or twice.

With the impending retirement of George Bush, many have wondered what new resentment will occupy the time and energy of the professional Bush Haters.  Well, we have our answer, Stephen Harper.  The Canadian Left, including its acolytes in the MSM, can just about tolerate a Conservative, as long as the Conservative in questions keeps losing.  Stephen Harper, after briefly losing his footing earlier this week, is looking again like a winner, like a very big winner.  He will now have two months to hammer the Coalition leaders on the sheer absurdity of their scheme, time to build up his reserves and drain those of the opposition.  The longer the Coalition stands in the plain light of the day, the less likelihood it has of surviving until January 27th, either from popular disgust or internal divisions. Whether in fact the GG eventually grants a dissolution is a moot point.  We're already in an election campaign, with the Prime Minister playing Captain Canada and the Coalition leaders the barbarians at the gate.  Recent opinion polls show a significant increase in support for the Tories, and an overwhelming belief in Harper's talents as an economic manager.  Even on the issue of holding another election, the results are clear:

Almost three-quarters of Canadians say they are "truly scared" for the future of the country and a solid majority say they would prefer another election to having the minority Conservative government replaced by a coalition led by Stephane Dion, a new Ipsos-Reid poll says.

The poll also indicates Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservatives would romp to a majority victory with a record 46 per cent public support if an election were held today.

Rapidly fading now is talk of the arrogant Harper stumbling his way into a grave crisis, and possibly out of power.  His obituary was written many times this last week.  The exact opposite is now happening.  He has stood and fought, now the tide is turning very much in his favour.  The Coalition has committed a massive strategic error that, if an election does come to pass, will result in their annihilation.  Having gone so far they now have only one hope, holding together until January 27th, defeating the government and staying in power long enough that everyone forgets how they came to power.  It's a pure question of nerve.  All hang together or all hang separately.  Looking at the iron willed chap across the aisle, it's unlikely many Liberals are going to risk going to all-out war with General Dion at the head of the army.  Liberals have an instinct for power over the long run.  Their instincts are telling them that this, however it plays out, will be a disaster for the once Natural Governing Party.  The crisis has made the political class overall look petty and out of touch.  Unless Harper is able to cast shadow and light, making this seem a crisis entirely of the opposition's making, he may wind up being seen as the best of a bad lot. 

Tonight we begin a nearly two month campaign that will decide the future of Canada for, at least, the better part of the next decade.  The current Conservative government has disappointed many of its supporters over the last three years, a policy of incrementalism that has convince many that it's leader is peddling Liberal Lite rather than old time Reform.  Whatever complaints or concerns we have with this political pragmatism we now face a grave crisis.  A decent government, which has a modest track record of accomplishments, led by an able man, might be removed from power by an avowed traitor, a semi-reformed socialist and one of the most incompetent men to lead a political party in Canadian history.  This is more than worrisome, it is outright dangerous.  If nothing else the defeat of the Coalition will cripple, at the federal level, the political forces of redistribution, regulation and statism for many years.  Whether the Harper government retains its minority government, or gains a majority in a snap election, any victory will discredit the three opposition parties.  Whether the ultimate leader of the Liberal Party will be Lord Iggy or Rae Day Bob, they'll be leading a party with a toxic brand.  To make that happen we too must all hang together, or all hang separately.