Wag the Dipper

So to speak.

“It’s not a love affair with the NDP,” agreed François Majeur, explaining his vote for the party’s star candidate, Thomas Mulcair, in the Montreal riding of Outremont. “It’s a test. They’re going to have to prove themselves.”

Like many Quebeckers, the University of Montreal computer science professor describes himself as an “indépendantiste” who still “wants to see Canada work.”

Huh? You want to leave but you also want to stay? Or do you want stay and be comfortable? That is until you can find a way of leaving? I've dated some twisted sisters over the years but none of them were as flinty and self serving as the archetypical Quebec voter. If they want to have it both ways why must I and the other 26 million of us still committed to the Canadian project foot the bill? 

The surprise sweep of what I euphemistically refer to as La Belle Province by the NDP has relieved many federalists. At last the Quebecois have rejoined Canada! Sure. It's great to see the Bloc Quebecois lose everything but four seats and their lavish pensions. If only they'd lost it all. Jack, however, was using strong sovereigntist tones in his Quebec speeches during the campaign. The Orange Surge isn't so much a leap away from separatism as a small two-step dance toward Canada. Something is better than nothing? Right? That's what the incrementalists keep telling me when I attack Stephen Harper for doing things Paul Martin would have thought far too gauche. 

Much has been made of the youth and inexperience of the NDP's super-sized caucus. Fair enough but how long does it really take to train seals? They'll be following Jack's whip in no time. Unless they start following Thomas Mulcair. Known to most Canadians for his rambling comments on the death of Osama Bin Laden he is arguably a more powerful figure than Jack Layton in the new caucus.

Follow.

The Dippers have an impressive 102 seats in the 41st Parliament. 58 of those seats are from Quebec. That gives the Quebec caucus a working majority within the overall NDP caucus. Virtually all of them are neophytes and more than a few are likely to have sovereigntist connections. Mulcair is Jack's Quebec lieutenant and will be in charge of whipping these High School Class President rejects into shape. However, when the English federalist wing of the NDP clashes with the French separatist wing who do the Quebec rookies follow? Layton or Mulcair?

The Quebecois like voting en bloc, overwhelmingly supporting one party at a time. They also favour incumbents. Both federally and provincially Quebec voters usually give the bums at least two terms before throwing them out. The NDP's support in the ROC of Canada is not so solid. As I've noted before I do think the Liberal Party is heading the way of buggy whips and mutton chops, that doesn't mean a Jean Charest-style-1997 revival isn't possible. A dead cat can bounce too. Even a Liberal one. Some of those freshly minted Dipper ridings might go back into the red in 2015.

Let's assume the Liberals elect a really charismatic leader. I don't mean Justin Trudeau. Someone with genuine charisma. The Grits take back bits and pieces of their GTA stronghold. Perhaps a good chunk of the island of Montreal and the BC lower mainland as well. The Dippers still retain a healthy seat count of 70-80 but now the overwhelming majority of the NDP caucus is in Quebec. Panicked at the Grit gains the party moves even more in the direction of sovereignty, perhaps even hinting at autonomy for Quebec while they still receive social transfers. The Quebec tail of the NDP would soon be wagging the ROC dog.

Far fetched? Sure but so was Jack Layton as Leader of the Opposition anytime before late April. This sort of thing has also happened before. Way back in the 1930s the success of the provincial Social Credit Party spawned a federal counterpart. The party's popularity peaked in the 1962 election with a total of 30 seats. In the following year's election they slipped to 24 but the ROC caucus was reduced to a mere four seats.

While Quebecois dominated the parliamentary front ranks it was western anglophones who actually ran the party. Réal Caouette, the Socreds leading Quebec figure denounced the party's leader Robert N Thompson as a puppet of Alberta Premier Ernest Manning (father of Preston). The Quebec Socreds set up their own party in 1963. By 1968 the English speaking wing of what had once been a western protest party was gone. In 1971 the Socreds reunited under Caouette's leadership and were eventually wiped out in the 1980 election.

It's unlikely the NDP will follow the Socreds into the history books anytime soon, if only because of the Dipper's bedrock support from the unions. That doesn't mean Jack won't find himself managing some rebellious French teenagers in the years ahead. Surely every father's worst nightmare. Even a progressive one.

 

Comments

[Alberta Pat]

Mulcair, Pat Martin and Libby Davies will continue their attacks on Harper, assuming that Official Opposition gives them licence to continue to act like thugs. Your analysis of Mulcair's position is spot on, unhappily. It was Mulcair who forced the anti-budget vote on Jack, threatening a caucus revolt if Jack supported Harper again. Mulcair is wildly ambitious, and now in the driver's seat.

Any hope that decorum and constructive debate will return to Parliament is shattered by the NDP Opposition. The fact that the Liberals are represented by dinosaurs like Goodlae, Rae McCallum etc. also means more hysteria in Question Period.Anyway, the Liberals are a footnote in history. The recent attempt by Chretien, fronting for Power Corporation and the Demarais clan, to ram Rae down our throats is farcical at best.

[mitchel44]

NDP shines!

http://www.globalnews.ca/world/apologizes+embellishing+Brosseau+resume/4759602/story.html