In memorializing the passing of the Great Vaclav Havel, Paul over at Celestial Junk noted:
Canadians may want to consider one of Havel's greatest accomplishments. Instead of clinging to a Slovakia chaffing for economic and national autonomy, Havel cut the Slovaks loose faster than even the Slovaks could comprehend. In his wisdom, he knew that being shackled to a disgruntled population would lead only to needless national expense and electoral manipulations and vote buying. Had Havel been the Canadian PM ... Quebec would have long ago been cut loose ... whether it wanted to or not.
Not so simple. It's a question of geography and economics. Here is a map of the Czech and Slovak republics just before their break-up. Nice clean split. Can't happen here. This is a map of the 1995 referendum vote. Try to split that up into a coherent country, much less two coherent countries. Never mind Ontario and the West losing direct access to the Maritimes.
Had the ancestors of the Quebecois settled in Newfoundland, rather than along the St Lawrence, it is rather unlikely that Quebec would have joined Confederation. There is also a chance that Canada might never have existed, its land mass having been absorbed during the post-Yorktown jockeying by the Americans. The French fact in Canada is ultimately a geographic one.
The economic and political heart of Canada is, and has always been, the St Lawrence-Lake Ontario waterway, what Donald Creighton called the Commerical Empire of the St Lawrence. Today it is usually described as the Windsor to Quebec City corridor. This region functions as a single economic unit. Throw up an international boundary at the Ottawa river and there is the high possibility of severing that unit.
But don't the Quebcois depend as much on the corridor as do Ontarians? Yes they do. Economic rationality, however, is not a prominent feature of Quebec politics. Blackmailing the Rest of Canada is a common strategy of both federalist and separatist leaders in the province. Because of the corridor they can blackmail the ROC just as effectively out of Confederation as in it.
There is a small group among the ethnic Quebecois that does believe in Canada. This group is, sadly, electorally insignificant. If it comprised say a third of the province's electoral rolls, a working alliance could be established with the Allophones and Anglophones. These would be people that the ROC could do business with, politically and economically. The overwhelming political fact of modern Quebec is that a provincial government cannot be formed without at least genuflecting to the province's ethnic nationalists. The lines between federalist and soft-nationalist are much fuzzier than often supposed.
The incessant rhetoric over language in Quebec masks the deep ethnic nationalism of its politics. Because of this the province integrates new comers poorly, driving the most talented to other parts of the country. Whereas the Quebec of the 19th century was able to integrate large numbers of Irish Catholics (such as Brian Mulroney's ancestors), the more aggressive ethnic nationalism of the last fifty years has made assimilating new groups much more difficult.
A lavish welfare state has rendered the traditionally large Quebecois family unsustainable. They are failing to breed and they are failing to assimilate. Future historians may regard the Quiet Revolution as the most remarkable act of cultural suicide in modern history. An entire group of civilized people voting and isolating themselves into languid oblivion. It's been a pleasant trip, in no small part financed by the taxpayers of Ontario and Alberta.
The approach of the ROC toward Quebec must be driven by this central understanding: For Quebecois ethnic nationalists the clock is ticking. For English Canada, then, time is very much on our side. Birth rates are somewhat higher than among the Quebecois and we do a better job, though hardly perfect, of integrating immigrants to Canadian standards. In fifty years time Quebec will not be recognizable, no matter what anyone in Quebec City does today.
There is still a fairly good chance that the ROC will survive in tact. The West grows ever stronger and more politically important within Confederation, a long-term shift far more important than the rent seeking activites of the PQ, BQ and the dying Liberal Party. The West plus the more conservative bits of Ontario contain the nucleus of something very potent.
Whatever the shortcomings of Stephen Harper as a reformer, he has proven that a nominally conservative majority government can be formed. More importantly he has proven that a party can win a majority government without Quebec. Every electorally successful Prime Minister in Canadian history has understood that Quebec must be on side to form a stable government. Back in May of this year Stephen Harper junked 144 years of political strategy.
Letting Quebec go now would be a tragic mistake, weakening the country on the eve of what might be our greatest moment. The province of Quebec is a superb bit of real estate, rich with natural resources and having an excellent strategic position. Don't confuse the malcontents with everyone in Quebec, and don't confuse the land with the people. There is too much potential to be lost.
The hand of the ROC improves with every year, especially with every Census. That of the Quebecois ethnic nationalists weakens even faster. On the question of national unity now is the time to do nothing. They will insist on being bribed. Fine. The value of the Windsor-Quebec City corridor exceeds the Danegeld. Keep the bribe to a minimum, make it clear that no more special privileges are to be granted and wait.
Once the Quebecois nationalists are unable to maintain a working majority in the national assembly, thirty or forty years hence, better forces will come to power. All the while the province itself becomes less and less electorally important. Time and patience are needed.
Fifty years ago Quebec nationalism was a dangerous threat. Today it is an expensive nuisance. Tomorrow it will be a problem that will likely solve itself. Just wait.
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