This is Going to be Very Expensive

The Tories return to Quebec:

In the Conservative lingo, the Blue Arrow refers to a swath of seats that includes three ridings in the Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean, seven seats in the greater Quebec City area, and five others to the south and to the east, along the St. Lawrence’s south shore. The Conservatives currently hold five of these seats, and would be happy to double their tally in the next general election.

Is this masochism on the part of the Conservatives? The party will spend untold fortunes, both from party coffers and the public fisc, to purchase the loyalty of that most fickle of creatures: The Quebec voter. Imagine if these resources were directed elsewhere? The same level of effort in the 905 or the Lower Mainland of BC could likely garner far more seats for the Boys in Blue. If history is any guide the largess that will flow into the greater Quebec City region will be of a vast scale. Enough, it can be assumed, to purchase at least one of the Atlantic provinces. 

But instead of buying those seven seats in Nova Scotia they don't really have, the Tories will try to capture another five seats in La Belle Province. A seat is a seat is a seat. Any seat gets you that much closer to a majority government no matter where you get it from. So why not get it from a place that doesn't threaten to break up the country as a matter of course? Yes, it's a hollow threat these days but irritating none the less.

The fascination with Quebec has little to do with those five extra seats, most of them lost in 2011. Stephen Harper does not want to go down in history as the Prime Minister with the least support in the second largest province. The last PM to do worse in Quebec was, ahem, Joe Clark. Since 2015 will likely be the Badly Coiffed One's last election, he'd like to go out in style. Ten seats at least gives the illusion that the Tories have a Quebec bridgehead, and a reasonable claim on being a truly national party. Winning another corporal's guard worth of seats in Quebec would seem like a minor defeat, regardless of what happens in the ROC. 

 

Comments

[MikeG81]

So, after proving you don't need Quebec to gain a majority, the Tories are going to prove you need Quebec for a majority.

[Cytotoxic]

Can we please oh please put to bed the fanciful notion that Harper is some kind of brilliant strategist? Where did this myth even come from? Was it spun whole out of the delusional fever dreams of team blue? Harper has never ever shown any strategic capability. He will, of course, blow 2015 to the surprise of only himself and his fanboys.

[Jim Whyte]

One thing, though: there is the convention about bringing Ministers in from all regions of the country, and the Cons would be rightly concerned about the wailing and gnashing of teeth if they (1) didn't bring a few Quebec members into cabinet or (2) dipped into the Senate as Clark did, especially in view of the Cons program to delegitimate the Other Place.

(Sidenote: Jacques Flynn probably beats the hell out of most Ministers of Justice since his short tenure.)

You might be able to finesse one more Quebec minister by appointing a Senator as Government Senate Leader, but the anti-Tory chattering class would see through that as a dummy appointment.

All in all the Beauce/Charlevoix area (the last redoubt of the old Creditistes) is probably the one where the Quebec Con vote will be least fickle -- faute de mieux, but you take what you can get.

Fact of political life in this country -- a seat where you ain't got no seats is more valuable than a seat where you gots 'em. No extra help when the division bells ring, granted, but much nicer optics.