Nationally, this latest poll shows the NDP slightly edging the CPC, with 36 per cent of decided support among likely voters (see notes on methodology at the end of this report), just ahead of the governing Conservatives (33%), while the Liberals pull up third at 23 per cent.
This represents a quantum leap of 13 points for the NDP, since a similar sounding in December showed them with the support of 23 per cent of likely voters. The NDP is reaping this support from the Liberals, who, by contrast, stood at 35 per cent among the most likely to vote in December, 12 points ahead of their standing in this latest poll. The Conservatives, meanwhile, remain essentially unchanged in terms of their national support over the last six months.
It took awhile but it's happening. The anti-Harper vote is slowly coalescing around Thomas Mulcair. The story here isn't so much the rise of Angry Tom as the fall of Shiny Pony. Justin Trudeau's political career is far from over and four months, the time between now and the October election, is a very long time in Canadian politics. Anything can happen. A war, a massive flood, locusts or even that bane of modern politics: A bad joke that gets "misunderstood" as bigoted in some previously unimagined way.
Over the long-run what wins elections is professionalism. A disciplined message, an effective air war and a ground machine that gets people to the polling stations on election day. The loftiest rhetoric, the grandest vision and the most sensible of policies will be useless without a professional political operation. For all of that to work you need a leader who's a pro.
Say what you will about Justin Trudeau he isn't a professional. He's more like the Ken Doll of the Canadian politics. His appeal is indirect for many. In truth he's a stalking horse for the Left. Very few people genuinely believe in the Son and Heir. They see him as a means to an end. That aging cadre of Grit bagmen and operators see him as a chance for one last hurrah. The young and opportunistic, who gravitate toward the Liberal Party in the same way and for the same reason they gravitate toward law school, see a foot in the door. Beyond all these are the social activists, community organizers and adjunct professors who form the rank and file of the militant Left in Canada.
Justin was their meal ticket. They "believe" in him because they think others will believe him. In a strange way the Dauphin is like a dotcom stock at the turn of the century. Everyone is buying in not because they understand the product or the business model, but because they assumed everyone else would be sucker enough to buy. The greater fool theory is a short-run proposition in the stock market. Apparently it doesn't have much longer legs in the political market place.
Thomas Mulcair is the long-run bet. His performance in the House, attacking the Tories daily, is watched by only a few, but those few are generating a positive buzz. His insistence on destroying the Senate is a constitutional pipe dream but plays well with the mood of the moment. The constant chattering about the middle class is plausible from Mulcair because he was, not so long ago, a member of the middle class. Very few political observers doubt that in a one-on-one debate the old bearded master would be taking young Justin to the woodshed.
Put aside ideology for a moment. Imagine Thomas Mulcair was a conservative. Hear coming out of his mouth happy sounds about free markets and smaller government. There is little about his tone, his manner or his personal history that would strike Right-leaning Canadians amiss. If not for his terrible ideas, masked under a tenuously pleasant demeanour, Thomas Mulcair might make for a half way decent Prime Minister of Canada.
Therein lies the danger. If the Justin Bubble really has burst, and we're not completely sure that it has, then PM Mulcair is the next logical option for the Left. Canadians look for one thing above all else in a leader: A safe pair of hands. Canadian Prime Ministers down the ages have tended to possess a sort of bank manager gravitas. Brian Mulroney had it. Jean Chretien sort of had it. Everyone thought Paul Martin had it until that juggernaut derailed. Stephen Harper practically oozes boring and sensible. You can easily imagine discussing interest rates with the Tory leader.
With ads like these Thomas Mulcair is twisting and nudging his way into that dull slice of the political personality spectrum. He understands what Bill Davis taught all aspiring politicians: Bland works. Even if Angry Tom doesn't come off quite like a bank manager, he could at least be taken for the assistant manager of a slightly eccentric credit union. The sort of places where no one wears ties and Greenpeace collects donations.
And that might be just enough for him to win.
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